3Q 11 note

8/3

• a Trader Takes on a $2.355M Position a day ahead of $FSLR First Solar earnings ; 3,000 Dec. 100 Puts $7.85. Dont know if sold or bought. Govrnment cutting spend left and right, maybe not good. On the other hand, everyone knows this long time ago, so can be value play? dunno. if dunno, sit out.
• IP) block of 10,000 August $27 puts bought to open at $0.56 here, shares sitting on the 200 day EMA
• mkt bounce back. Either we test the neckline of HS and make a double bottom before we go or we go high. will sell the 5 aapl wkly that bought this morning tmr

8/2

MKT down big today. Here is my summary for condition:

Bull:

• 
  
• Down 8 days in a row
• Short term oversold. So thus intermediate term. Helen Meiser and Mscellen Osc
• Expectation for job report can be low. Any upside surprise will spark a short covering rally
• Even WSJ talking about H/S top. Too popular. usually not play out
• Closed raelly outside Bollinger band http://chart.ly/h3hpljt last time this happen on MArch 15, we bounced hard
• T2108 Adv/ Decline line is at 24.5. Not super low but decent
• Dow has now closed 4 consecutive days below the lower bollinger band, this is very rare. Zor
• The Dow is now down 8 days in a row, another rare occasion
• The total CBOE put to call ratio as close above 1 for 3 days in a row. Readings above 1 normally lead to a bounce in the short term. However, the equity only ratio is not showing super fear
• RSI oversold
• 1 day not = trend change. Give it a few more days.

Bear:

• Broke 200 day moving avg. Although it has not been that relevant, the mother trend line from March low broke
• If we dont bull 1250 soon, this signal a major correction and double top on weekly will play out. Target SPY 115!
• Too many twitter ppl talking about a bounce or looking for a bounce......no good. Plus, leader stock shows no panic at all....yet?
• Even Jim cramer is not early to say buy. In the past, he is about a week early to the bottom.
• Gold/ SLV/ TLT all really on fire. a LOT More on fire than the Japan meltdown. Big $ is out of stock and go to safe haven
• VIX future is being bought. A few big bear option bet (VIX 27.5/ 35), SEP quarterly butterfly with $124/$118/$112 put butterfly spread
• Small cap got sold off hard. Bank got sold off hard. Option spread is hard to be filled because no big house want to open a new trade. This can be liquidity issues. always a bad sign and more to go
• VIX future got bought. The last time the market didn’t buy a sell off, but the VIX futures did, we did bounce back, but then quickly turned around again. BY: Optionpit
• Dow Theory, Transport is breaking down HARD. a lot of railroad hit lower channel.

Contradition:

• High growth stock hold up well, but I thought we sell off because of bad eco?
• Copper is in gd shape. Is it because of demand Vs supplies issue or reflecting global eco?
• Wed job number has diff Vs Fri job number. Which one is right?

Plan:

I think we may still need 1 more big push down. Going forward the coming week, will take profit out on any bounce sooner than any other bounce. the bounce is expected to be a week or so; however, any bounce will be treated as oversold bounce until proven otherwise. For now, I will treat the double top in play just to be safe. Also, will add hedge agressive (possibly follow that big ass Butterfly 124/118/112) on any bounce near 1300 SPX.

Emergency review:

• AAPL Dont get ass itch to buy AAPL. wait for 360- 370. Will hold the Sept 395/405/415 butterfly.
• GOOG careful for now. Gap fill. Dont get ass itch.
• AMZN sucks ball. Out. Dont get ass itch.
• WYNN wait for 135
• CAT will be out on any bounce. gd support but environmental not good for heavy ind
• DECK, will hold the calendar spread
• BIDU, will cut the weekly on any bounce. Will keep the calendar as lottery
• CRM, will keep the sept. Too small to make me sweat
• MCP, keep the calendar for earning. Out on the weekly and prepare to take 50% hair cut
• UNP, support at 99. If no bounce tmr, will be out at B/E
• APA, Aug 130 is .6 now. Earn 8/4. buy bk aug, roll to sep on bounce Down 4 today but still looks good.
• POT, like fert. such not be as screwed by the global slow down. W pattern still holding at 56.8. sell week 60 on any rip. will hold the 65 sep/aug cal as lottery.
• MS: hold, such balls but worth the risk.
• LNG, look ok. Dont use stop. Spread too wide.
• REE, hold. Lottery
• SBUX, set alert at 38.3. Below that, I am out.
• SLM, the sep 17 still has 19k open interest. They didnt sell. follow. Gamble. expect to lose all. Sept, still have time.
• TBT: cost free, not much value left. lottery.
• AKAM, worthless. hope for buy out as lottery
• BBY, destoryed. too late to sell, Sept, have time. Gamble earning then. Earning 9/13
• GSM, barely holding support at 22.5. no stop. Spread too wide. Earning 9/15. Wait a bit. No sell.
• DHR, worthless
• SPY hedge, Have to start getting out on thursday.

8/1

• $GES Sept 35 / Aug 38 bull risk reversal trades 2,000 times; separately 5,000 Sept 42 calls bought at 1.20 offer two min before close...........Stock at suppot on weekly. however, volatility is a bit too high. do 41 Caledar for 1.05.....
• $FST 7,500 Jan 30 calls bought y'day and 4,000 Sept 28 calls bought today. May be buy out candidate. Good trendline break. Earning 8/1
• Biogen ($BIIB) 3 way trade in Oct. key data for its MS oral drug, with a sale of 800 $85 puts to buy 800 $105/$120 call spreads. Worth about 1.2 mil. Can do 1 Oct/ Sep 120 cal spread and Sep/ Aug 110 with the expectional to roll it to Oct/ Sep 120 call.
• UBS Recommends $PCLN Aug. 540/580/620 Butterfly Call Spreads for Earnings....Pricing Near $7.20 as of Friday

7/30

• FST: 7,500 Jan 30 calls bought y'day and 4,000 Sept 28 calls bought today (fahad and radar).
• Open: 55 after earning? radar.
• Wait for SPX above 1292 if gapped down to go long. Oversold and VIX toppy.
• NFLX 285 Calander aug/sep
• MA 280/290 put spread to play gap filling? depend on mkt
• Be careful MOS. potential HS. wanted to buy before but the weekly not so hot.
• CLF 200 moving avg
• CCJ 30 Dec/ Aug calander. 3 contracts. Stop at 26 uptrend line. Earning 8/4 be careful.
• PBR 36 Sep/ Aug. 15# contract with 0.3 per combo. The sep 36 is 25.61 IM and Aug Aug is 27.33. Not huge but decend odd. Earnign 8/12. Be careful.
• Focused on $OPEN $HLF $COH $CTSH $PH $SFSF $GRMN $WLT 1st half of week for earnings; $CF $FSLR $PCLN $HANS $DTV $TDC $RAX 2nd Half

7/24

SINa holding the trendline abover 110

PNRA close to vol squeeze but earning on 7/26

MOS in squeeze, look for a back test at 70. Earnign out already

ARO Oct 19 call at 1 (option radar), earning 8/18. can try Oct/ aug 21 calendar

Sell 2# weekly 60 and buy 4# 65 calendar (by the W bottom pattern with 65.65 target)

MIPS in squeeze

7/21

CRM Sept 175/185, option 3000K buy

EOG, break trend line

BHI 85 calendar

7/20

UTX, earning out. Calendar 90, roll if go above 90

7/19

preearning runner: lulu, sina, bidu, nflx

CAT

OIH

CMI

DVN, break trend line. Earnign 8/3.......77.5 for 5.75....scottrade

MUR, option bullish 7/28.......6 sep 70, sell -3 aug 70....sell more later. let it run.

APA. earning 8/4...aug 125 call. option flow

Xec earning 8/4....sept 95. my own thinking.

CXO earning 8/3 sept 95. my own thinking.

PCX wait for pull back.....aug 19 call with scootrade acct.

BIDU earning 7/25 confirmed with website. Will have to sell the weekly call on Friday and then roll. possible play 165/175 call.

MELI, sep 85 call for 2.8. tech support

DHR 55 for 1.15, 3 contracts. good valuation

LYB 40 aug for .85. follow option

7/17

This week earning run.

AAPL: Both pre-earning run and after earning run. Weekly chart is in tight squeeze that is ready to move up big

- Option house 375/385/395. Pure earning

-Scottrade, pre earning run. 3 365 weekly. Sell before earning

- TOS, 3 dig 370aug/375 weekly. post earning run. Will sell more weekly right before earning

- TOS 3 buttefly 370/ 385/ 400. Post earning

BIDU: Pre-earning run

-scott, pre aering 145. Sell b4 earning

SINA/ SOHU: Run related to BIDU

MCP at key buy pt

CSX: weekly tight squeeze

GOOG: 600 or above